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DALLAS (SMU) – Imagine if weather warning systems knew your daily commute. You could be alerted that a dangerous flash flood directly impacted your drive home, and you could choose a safer path.

A new research project aims to make more personalized, effective weather alerts a reality. Barbara Minsker, Bobby B. Lyle Endowed Professor of Leadership and Global Entrepreneurship at SMU Lyle School of Engineering, and a multidisciplinary team of researchers received a National Science Foundation Planning Grant to revolutionize how weather warnings are issued in the U.S. and improve safety of communities.

Funded under the CRISES Planning Grant, the research aims to shift weather warnings from a broad meteorological focus to a more personalized, human-centered approach. Currently, weather warnings are often generic and delivered to entire regions, which can leave individuals struggling to assess their own specific risk and decide how to respond. This project seeks to understand and integrate various factors that affect how people perceive and react to weather hazards, especially flash floods, which are among the deadliest weather events in the U.S.

“Human-centered warnings have great potential to improve individual-level decision-making and community outcomes during dangerous weather,” Minsker said. “With our current Early Warning Systems, each person is responsible for ensuring they receive and understand the warning, figuring out if they or loved ones are at risk, and then deciding if they have the capability or interest in taking protective actions. During flash floods, which can escalate rapidly, people may not act quickly if they don't fully understand the danger to their personal situation.”

The research team is made up of a diverse group of experts, including meteorology, environmental science, engineering, computer science, and community outreach. In addition to SMU, institutions involved include the University of Massachusetts, Texas Tech University, the University of Texas Arlington, and the University of Oklahoma, along with federal labs such as the National Severe Storms Laboratory and the National Center for Atmospheric Research.

A Vision for Human-Centered Warnings

The goal of the project is to develop a new kind of Early Warning System that better understands and addresses individual risk perceptions and behaviors. This involves two main objectives:

• Understanding Risk Perception and Behavior: Researchers will delve deeper into how different factors—such as social and environmental cues, socioeconomic status, individual cognition, and mobility—affect how people perceive and respond to weather hazards. For example, a person's daily routines, like commuting routes, might affect their risk and need for tailored warnings.

• Personalizing Warnings: Based on the insights, the project will work toward creating a system that can deliver personalized weather warnings. This means integrating real-time data about an individual's location and habits into warning systems so that alerts are more relevant and actionable. For instance, if someone frequently travels through areas prone to flooding, they could receive targeted alerts about those specific routes.

The project will focus on flash floods initially due to their high fatality rates and the urgent need to improve warning systems for such rapid-onset events.

“By shifting to a more personalized approach, we hope to enhance how individuals and communities respond to weather hazards, ultimately saving lives and reducing the impact of severe weather events,” Minsker said.

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